The short version
- Bigger crop, tighter balance. Production rose 12 million bushels to 4.574 billion, but exports rose more (+25 million), so ending stocks fell 15 million to 300 million bushels.
- Higher price outlook. USDA's 2026/27 season-average farm price is $12.10/bu, up $0.10 from October and 15% above last season's $10.50.
- Bigger than last year on every major line: 5.7 million more acres planted, production up 7.3%, crush up 5.1%, exports up 13.5%.
- Soybean oil is now a fuel story. Biofuel takes 53.9% of domestic soybean oil use, oil exports shrink to just 400 million pounds, and oil makes up about half of a crushed bushel's value.
- Brazil still sets the world pace. A 186 MMT Brazilian crop and 118 MMT of exports — 61.3% of world trade — keep competition for U.S. beans intense.
What changed from October
November's changes came mostly from the NASS Crop Production report released the same day. Higher yields in Minnesota, Iowa, South Dakota and Nebraska outweighed lower yields in Illinois, Kansas, Missouri and Arkansas, lifting the national yield to 53.3 bu/A. Exports were raised on larger supplies and a strong early-season export pace; crush was left unchanged at 2.780 billion bushels.
Month-over-month changes to the 2026/27 U.S. soybean balance sheet
Million bushels, November vs. October WASDE. Supply increases and higher use both shown; ending stocks fall because use grew more than supply.
Show data table
| October | November | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yield (bu/A) | 53.1 | 53.3 | +0.2 |
| Production (mil bu) | 4,562 | 4,574 | +12 |
| Exports (mil bu) | 1,695 | 1,720 | +25 |
| Crush (mil bu) | 2,780 | 2,780 | ±0 |
| Seed (mil bu) | 73 | 76 | +3 |
| Residual (mil bu) | 39 | 38 | −1 |
| Ending stocks (mil bu) | 315 | 300 | −15 |
| Soybean price ($/bu) | $12.00 | $12.10 | +$0.10 |
| Soybean oil price (¢/lb) | 70¢ | 68¢ | −2¢ |
| Soybean meal price ($/short ton) | $340 | $340 | ±$0 |
This year's crop vs. last year's
Farmers planted 86.9 million acres of soybeans in 2026, up 5.7 million from 2025's 81.2 million and close to 2024's 87.3 million. Combined with a slightly higher yield, that produced the largest of the three crops: 4.574 billion bushels versus 4.261 billion last year. Demand grew faster than supply, though — total use is up 321 million bushels — which is why stocks still tighten.
U.S. soybean supply and use, three seasons
Million bushels. 2026/27 is USDA's November projection; 2025/26 is an estimate.
Show the full balance sheet
| 2024/25 | 2025/26 (est.) | 2026/27 (Nov) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Planted area (mil acres) | 87.3 | 81.2 | 86.9 |
| Harvested area (mil acres) | 86.2 | 80.4 | 85.9 |
| Yield (bu/acre) | 50.7 | 53.0 | 53.3 |
| Beginning stocks | 342 | 325 | 315 |
| Production | 4,374 | 4,261 | 4,574 |
| Imports | 30 | 22 | 25 |
| Total supply | 4,746 | 4,608 | 4,914 |
| Crush | 2,445 | 2,646 | 2,780 |
| Exports | 1,892 | 1,515 | 1,720 |
| Seed | 70 | 75 | 76 |
| Residual | 14 | 57 | 38 |
| Total use | 4,421 | 4,293 | 4,614 |
| Ending stocks | 325 | 315 | 300 |
| Stocks-to-use | 7.4% | 7.3% | 6.5% |
| Season-average farm price | $10.00 | $10.50 | $12.10 |
Planted acres
Million acres
Yield
Bushels per harvested acre
Tighter stocks, higher price
The number traders watch most is the stocks-to-use ratio — ending stocks divided by total use. At 300 ÷ 4,614 it's 6.5%, down from 7.3% last season and 7.4% the year before. A thinner cushion usually supports price, and USDA's $12.10 forecast is the highest season-average since 2023/24's $12.40.
Stocks-to-use ratio
Ending stocks ÷ total use
Season-average farm price
$ per bushel
Soybean season-average farm price, 1989/90 to 2026/27
$ per bushel by marketing year. Gold bar = USDA's November 2026 forecast for 2026/27. 6 earlier seasons averaged $12.10 or more.
Source: USDA (via American Soybean Association SoyStats through 2024/25; WASDE for 2025/26 estimate and 2026/27 forecast). See monthly prices →
Soybean oil & biofuel
Soybean oil is where the balance sheet has changed most. Biofuel use is projected at 17.8 billion pounds, up from 14.9 billion last season and 11.8 billion the year before, and now takes 53.9% of domestic soybean oil use. With more oil staying home, exports fall to just 400 million pounds — down from 2.47 billion two seasons ago. USDA trimmed its oil price forecast 2¢ to 68¢/lb, still well above 2024/25's 47.6¢.
Where U.S. soybean oil goes
Million pounds. Biofuel use reflects EIA-reported soybean oil used for biofuels.
Show data table
| 2024/25 | 2025/26 (est.) | 2026/27 (Nov) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Production (mil lb) | 29,218 | 30,576 | 32,945 |
| Used for biofuel (mil lb) | 11,758 | 14,900 | 17,800 |
| Food, feed & other industrial (mil lb) | 15,154 | 15,511 | 15,205 |
| Exports (mil lb) | 2,472 | 982 | 400 |
| Biofuel share of domestic use | 43.7% | 49.0% | 53.9% |
| Average price (¢/lb) | 47.59¢ | 64.08¢ | 68.00¢ |
Why it matters to growers: strong biofuel demand supports crush margins, which supports what processors pay for beans. It also ties soybean prices more closely to biofuel policy — federal renewable fuel volumes and tax credits — so policy headlines now move soybean markets alongside weather.
Soybean meal & livestock
Every bushel crushed for oil also makes about 47 pounds of meal, so rising crush means more meal to sell. U.S. meal production is projected at 65.8 million short tons, with exports up to 22.7 million short tons — the most of the three seasons shown — and domestic use at 44.0 million. USDA held its meal price at $340/short ton.
On the feed side, USDA projects broiler production rising from 49.5 billion pounds in 2026 to 50.0 billion in 2027 and pork edging up to 27.8 billion pounds — steady growth in the animals that eat most U.S. soybean meal.
U.S. soybean meal: domestic use and exports
Thousand short tons
Show data table
| 2024/25 | 2025/26 (est.) | 2026/27 (Nov) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Production (1,000 short tons) | 58,443 | 62,608 | 65,800 |
| Domestic use (1,000 short tons) | 41,232 | 43,374 | 44,033 |
| Exports (1,000 short tons) | 18,073 | 20,302 | 22,700 |
| Ending stocks (1,000 short tons) | 398 | 333 | 400 |
| Average price ($/short ton) | $300.33 | $325.32 | $340.00 |
What a bushel is worth crushed
Using USDA's own balance sheet, each bushel crushed yields about 47 lb of meal and 11.8 lb of oil. At November's price forecasts that's roughly $8.05 of meal and $8.06 of oil — about $16.11 per bushel, against a $12.10 bean. Two seasons ago oil was 44% of that value; now it's about 50%.
Estimated product value per bushel crushed
$ per bushel, meal + oil, from WASDE production and season-average prices
Show data table
| 2024/25 | 2025/26 (est.) | 2026/27 (Nov) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Meal per bushel crushed (lb) | 47.8 | 47.3 | 47.3 |
| Oil per bushel crushed (lb) | 11.9 | 11.6 | 11.8 |
| Meal value per bushel | $7.18 | $7.70 | $8.05 |
| Oil value per bushel | $5.69 | $7.40 | $8.06 |
| Combined product value | $12.87 | $15.10 | $16.11 |
| Soybean price | $10.00 | $10.50 | $12.10 |
| Oil share of product value | 44% | 49% | 50% |
Our estimate, not a USDA figure. It mixes marketing-year averages (soybeans Sep–Aug, meal and oil Oct–Sep) and ignores processing costs, so it shows the trend, not an actual crush margin.
The world picture
World soybean production is projected at 442.5 million metric tons, down 0.2 MMT from October but up from 429.3 MMT last season. Brazil's 186 MMT crop is half again the size of the U.S. crop, and Brazil ships 61.3% of world exports versus 24.3% for the U.S. China remains the buyer that matters: 115 MMT of imports, about 60% of world trade. World ending stocks slip 0.8 MMT to 123.5 MMT, mostly on lower U.S. and Argentine stocks.
Production: U.S., Brazil, Argentina
Million metric tons
Exports: U.S., Brazil, Argentina
Million metric tons
World soybean numbers
Million metric tons; Brazil and Argentina on an Oct–Sep year
| 2024/25 | 2025/26 (est.) | 2026/27 (Nov) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| World production (MMT) | 428.2 | 429.3 | 442.5 |
| Brazil production | 172.5 | 180.5 | 186.0 |
| U.S. production | 119.0 | 116.0 | 124.5 |
| Argentina production | 51.1 | 49.3 | 50.0 |
| World exports | 184.3 | 186.6 | 192.6 |
| Brazil exports | 103.1 | 114.5 | 118.0 |
| U.S. exports | 51.5 | 41.2 | 46.8 |
| China imports | 108.0 | 113.0 | 115.0 |
| World ending stocks | 126.0 | 125.0 | 123.5 |
Corn, soybeans & 2027 acres
The same report lowered corn: production to 15.9 billion bushels on a 179.6 bu/A yield, ending stocks to 1.758 billion, and the corn price forecast to $4.60. Dividing USDA's soybean price by its corn price gives a ratio of 2.63, up from 2.52 last season. Above roughly 2.5, the economics generally tilt toward planting more soybeans — so if that relationship holds into winter, it could pull acres toward soybeans in 2027.
How reliable is November?
USDA publishes its own track record. Since 1981/82, the November U.S. soybean production forecast has missed the final number by an average of 2.1% (root mean square error), and 9 times out of 10 it lands within 3.5%. Applied to this year, that's a range of about 4,414 to 4,734 million bushels. November has come in below the final estimate 20 times and above it 25 times — no consistent bias.
November production forecast and its 90% range
Ending stocks are far less certain: their November forecast has historically been off by 45.8% on average, because small changes in production or exports swing a small carryout. Treat 300 million bushels as a midpoint, not a promise.
What it means for growers
- Unpriced beans: a tighter balance sheet and a $12.10 season-average forecast are supportive, but much of that is already in futures prices. Compare your local cash bid to your break-even, and watch basis — harvest pressure usually widens it.
- 2027 planning: a soybean-to-corn price relationship above 2.5 favors soybeans. Order seed early if you expect to shift acres; popular varieties go first. Shortlist varieties for your state →
- Crush is the steady buyer. With crush at a projected 2.78 billion bushels — 60% of total use — processors' bids matter more than ever, especially near crush plants.
- Exports depend on Brazil. U.S. beans compete best in the fall, before Brazil's harvest arrives in the first months of the year.
- Soil sample for SCN this fall. Higher prices raise the cost of yield loss; the cheapest insurance is knowing your egg counts. SCN management →
Information only — not financial or trading advice.
What to watch next
- December 10, 2026 — WASDE. Usually a demand month: export and crush changes rather than yield.
- January 12, 2027 — WASDE. January's report typically arrives with NASS's annual Crop Production summary and quarterly Grain Stocks, which settle the size of the 2026 crop.
- Weekly: USDA Export Sales (Thursdays) to see whether the raised export forecast is being met.
- South America: Brazil's planting and January–April harvest; dry spells there move U.S. prices.
Full report calendar & watch list How to read the WASDE
Sources
- USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, WASDE-677, November 10, 2026 — highlights (pp. 1–3), U.S. soybeans & products (p. 15), world soybeans, meal and oil (pp. 28–30), corn (p. 12), animal products (p. 31), reliability (p. 36).
- USDA price history via American Soybean Association, SoyStats.
- Derived figures (stocks-to-use, percent changes, crush value, ratios, forecast range) calculated by soybeanseed.com from the WASDE tables.