What the WASDE is
The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report is USDA's monthly forecast of supply, use, ending stocks and prices for major crops and livestock, in the U.S. and worldwide. It's prepared by interagency committees led by the World Agricultural Outlook Board, with input from USDA's Economic Research Service, Foreign Agricultural Service, Farm Service Agency and Agricultural Marketing Service. Reports come out at 12:00 p.m. Eastern, usually between the 8th and 12th of each month (see the calendar).
For soybeans, three parts matter most: the U.S. soybeans and products table (soybeans, meal and oil), the world soybean tables, and the written Oilseeds summary on the first pages that explains what changed and why.
The soybean balance sheet, line by line
Every WASDE crop table follows the same logic: supply − use = ending stocks. Here's the U.S. soybean table from the November 2026 report, in million bushels, for the 2026/27 marketing year (September–August).
| Line | Mil bu | What it means |
|---|---|---|
| Beginning stocks | 315 | Soybeans left over from last season on September 1. |
| + Production | 4,574 | Harvested acres × yield. The biggest swing factor from August through January. |
| + Imports | 25 | Small for the U.S. |
| = Total supply | 4,914 | Everything available to use during the marketing year. |
| Crush | 2,780 | Beans processed into meal and oil — the largest U.S. use. |
| + Exports | 1,720 | Whole beans shipped abroad; China and Brazil drive this line. |
| + Seed | 76 | Beans needed to plant next year's crop. |
| + Residual | 38 | A balancing item for losses and measurement differences. |
| = Total use | 4,614 | All demand combined. |
| Ending stocks | 300 | Supply minus use: the carryout into next season. The number the market watches most. |
Above the bushel lines sit planted and harvested acres and yield; below them, the season-average farm price — USDA's forecast of the average price farmers will receive across the whole marketing year, not a futures price.
Stocks-to-use: the one number to remember
Ending stocks on their own can mislead, because demand grows over time. Traders divide ending stocks by total use:
A lower ratio means a thinner cushion against a short crop or a demand surprise, and usually a higher price. Watch the direction of change from month to month as much as the level.
Meal, oil and biofuel
The same page shows soybean oil (million pounds) and soybean meal (thousand short tons), on an October–September year. Each bushel crushed yields roughly 47 lb of meal and 11–12 lb of oil. Two lines deserve attention:
- Biofuel under soybean oil use — soybean oil used for biodiesel and renewable diesel, as reported by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. In November 2026 it was 53.9% of domestic soybean oil use.
- Meal exports — rising crush produces more meal than U.S. livestock can use, so exports absorb the surplus.
Strong oil demand raises crush margins, which supports what processors pay for soybeans. See what a bushel is worth crushed →
The world tables
The world soybean, meal and oil tables are in million metric tons, with Brazil and Argentina adjusted to an October–September year. Key lines for U.S. growers:
- Brazil production and exports — the world's largest producer and exporter, competing directly with U.S. beans.
- China imports — roughly 60% of world soybean imports.
- World ending stocks — the global cushion.
What each month's report adds
| Report month | What's new for soybeans |
|---|---|
| May | First projections for the new marketing year, based on Prospective Plantings and trend yield. |
| June | Refines new-crop demand; planting is mostly done. |
| July | Uses NASS's June Acreage and Grain Stocks reports — acres can change sharply. |
| August | First survey-based yield from NASS Crop Production. Often the most volatile report of the year. |
| September–November | Yield and production updates as harvest advances; the new marketing year starts September 1. |
| December | Mostly demand: exports and crush. |
| January | Final crop size from the annual Crop Production summary, plus December 1 Grain Stocks. |
| February–April | Old-crop demand and South American crops; USDA's Outlook Forum in February previews the next season. |
How WASDE moves prices
Markets move on the surprise, not the number. Before each report, analysts publish average trade estimates for key lines like yield and ending stocks. If USDA's ending stocks come in below the trade average, futures usually rally; above it, they usually fall. That's why a report can raise production and still send prices higher — as in November 2026, when bigger exports cut ending stocks.
Turn that into decisions with our live soybean prices page, basis calculator and break-even calculator.
How accurate is the WASDE?
USDA publishes its own record at the back of each report. For November forecasts since 1981/82, the typical miss versus the final estimate (root mean square error) and the 90% range are:
| Soybean line | Typical miss | 9 times in 10, within |
|---|---|---|
| U.S. production | 2.1% | 3.5% |
| U.S. exports | 9.5% | 16.0% |
| U.S. domestic use | 3.5% | 5.9% |
| U.S. ending stocks | 45.8% | 77.1% |
| World production | 4.0% | 6.7% |
| World ending stocks | 15.2% | 25.7% |
Production gets very accurate by November. Ending stocks remain uncertain — a 2% change in production or exports is a large share of a 300-million-bushel carryout.
Units and conversions
- 1 bushel of soybeans = 60 lb. 1 metric ton = 36.74 bushels (USDA factor: 0.027216 metric tons per bushel).
- 1 million metric tons ≈ 36.7 million bushels. The U.S. 2026/27 crop of 4,574 million bushels ≈ 124.5 MMT.
- 1 hectare = 2.471 acres. Soybean oil prices are in cents per pound; meal in dollars per short ton (2,000 lb).
Frequently asked questions
What time does the WASDE come out?
12:00 p.m. Eastern on the release day. See all 2026–2027 dates.
Where do I find the soybean numbers?
The "U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use" table (page 15 in recent reports) and the "World Soybean Supply and Use" table; the Oilseeds paragraph on the first pages explains the changes.
Is the WASDE price a futures price?
No. It's USDA's forecast of the marketing-year average price farmers receive. Futures trade continuously and include expectations beyond USDA's numbers.
Does WASDE include variety yield results?
No — WASDE covers national supply and demand. Variety performance comes from university variety trials; see our variety database and variety selector.
Where can I get past reports?
USDA keeps the archive in its ESMIS library (esmis.nal.usda.gov), and our market reports page keeps every soybean breakdown we publish.
Sources
- USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board, WASDE report, including WASDE-677 (November 10, 2026): soybean tables (pp. 15, 28–30), reliability tables (p. 36), conversion factors (p. 38).